The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

The incumbent, Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018,[1] declined to run for reelection and instead ran successfully for Governor of Montana, after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock.[2]

As the Green Party was removed from the ballot, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.[3]

In the general election, Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams.

As of a result of the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained its 2nd congressional district that it lost in 1993, therefore making the 2020 election the last election for the at-large district before it was eliminated.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Rosendale

Executive officials

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Russell
Fagg
Joe
Dooling
Timothy
Johnson
Al
Olszewski
Denny
Rehberg
Matt
Rosendale
Corey
Stapleton
Undecided
Montana State University Billings[16] October 7–16, 2019 99 (LV) 1% <1% 32% 22% 44%
WPA Intelligence (R)[17][A] February 24–26, 2019 501 (V) ± 4.4% 24% 57% 15%
39% 46% 13%
18% 10% 51% 18%
15% 31% 37% 16%
17% 48% 19% 16%

Results

Republican primary results[18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale 104,575 48.31%
Republican Corey Stapleton 71,902 33.21%
Republican Debra Lamm 14,462 6.68%
Republican Joe Dooling 13,726 6.34%
Republican Mark McGinley 7,818 3.61%
Republican John Evankovich 3,983 1.84%
Total votes 216,466 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams)[21]

Declined

Endorsements

Kathleen Williams

State politicians

Local politicians

Individuals

  • Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran and former 2020 candidate for U.S. House of Representatives from Montana's at-large district[21]

Local unions

Organizations

Tom Winter

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rains
Kathleen
Williams
Undecided
Montana State University Billings[34] October 7–16, 2019 40 (LV) 6% 69% 25%

Results

Democratic primary results[18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kathleen Williams 133,436 89.47%
Democratic Tom Winter 15,698 10.53%
Total votes 149,134 100.0%

Other candidates

Green Party

Disqualified

  • John Gibney, anti-immigration activist[35][36]

Results

Green primary results[18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green John Gibney 690 100.0%
Total votes 690 100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[37] Lean R October 2, 2020
Inside Elections[38] Lean R October 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] Lean R October 1, 2020
Politico[40] Lean R September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[41] Lean R September 25, 2020
RCP[42] Tossup October 26, 2020
Niskanen[43] Lean R July 26, 2020
The Economist[44] Tossup October 2, 2020

Polling

%support01020304050603/13/20207/13/202010/2/202010/24/2020WilliamsRosendaleOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States H...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Kathleen
Williams (D)
Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings[45] October 19–24, 2020 546 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 46% 6%[b]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[46] October 18–20, 2020 758 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 46% 4%[c]
Strategies 360[47] October 15–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 46% 9%[d]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[48] October 15–18, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47%[e] 47% 6%[f]
45%[g] 49% 6%[h]
49%[i] 45% 6%[j]
Montana State University Bozeman[49] September 14 – October 2, 2020 1,609 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 46% 6%[k]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[50] September 14–16, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.8% 41% 44% 13%[l]
Expedition Strategies (D)[51][B] August 22–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 51% 1%[m]
WPA Intelligence (R)[52][A] August 9–11, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 45% 4%[n]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[53] July 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2% 49% 47% 5%[o]
Public Policy Polling[54] July 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8% 44% 44% 13%[p]
Global Strategy Group (D)[55][C] June 24–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 6%
University of Montana[56] June 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3% 45% 37% 18%[q]
Public Policy Polling[57][D] March 12–13, 2020 903 (V) ± 3.3% 45% 45% 9%
Hypothetical polling

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Kathleen
Williams (D)
Other
University of Montana[58] February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 35.7% 19.4% 35.8% 9.1%[r]

with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Kathleen
Williams (D)
Other
University of Montana[59] September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 35.3% 19.8% 36.1% 8.8%[s]

Results

2020 Montana's at-large congressional district election[60]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Matt Rosendale 339,169 56.39% +5.51%
Democratic Kathleen Williams 262,340 43.61% −2.64%
Total votes 601,509 100.00%
Republican hold

By county

County[60] Matt Rosendale
Republican
Kathleen Williams
Democratic
Margin Total
Votes % Votes % Votes %
Beaverhead 3,811 67.71% 1,817 32.29% 1,994 35.43% 5,628
Big Horn 2,103 43.96% 2,681 56.04% -578 -12.08% 4,784
Blaine 1,391 44.90% 1,707 55.10% -316 -10.20% 3,098
Broadwater 3,150 77.11% 935 22.89% 2,215 54.22% 4,085
Carbon 4,465 63.29% 2,590 36.71% 1,875 26.58% 7,055
Carter 758 88.76% 96 11.24% 662 77.52% 854
Cascade 22,724 57.14% 17,043 42.86% 5,681 14.29% 39,767
Chouteau 1,820 61.49% 1,140 38.51% 680 22.97% 2,960
Custer 4,072 69.67% 1,773 30.33% 2,299 39.33% 5,845
Daniels 786 77.44% 229 22.56% 557 54.88% 1,015
Dawson 3,639 75.81% 1,161 24.19% 2,478 51.63% 4,800
Deer Lodge 2,036 41.83% 2,831 58.17% -795 -16.33% 4,867
Fallon 1,312 83.94% 251 16.06% 1,061 67.88% 1,563
Fergus 4,715 72.90% 1,753 27.10% 2,962 45.79% 6,468
Flathead 38,426 64.37% 21,271 35.63% 17,155 28.74% 59,697
Gallatin 32,217 45.56% 38,501 54.44% -6,284 -8.89% 70,718
Garfield 738 92.13% 63 7.87% 675 84.27% 801
Glacier 1,783 31.46% 3,885 68.54% -2,102 -37.09% 5,668
Golden Valley 412 89.76% 47 10.24% 365 79.52% 459
Granite 1,388 66.48% 700 33.52% 688 32.95% 2,088
Hill 3,807 53.11% 3,361 46.89% 446 6.22% 7,168
Jefferson 5,288 65.10% 2,835 34.90% 2,453 30.20% 8,123
Judith Basin 998 74.26% 346 25.74% 652 48.51% 1,344
Lake 9,239 56.03% 7,250 43.97% 1,989 12.06% 16,489
Lewis and Clark 21,045 49.99% 21,050 50.01% -5 -0.01% 42,095
Liberty 776 71.85% 304 28.15% 472 43.70% 1,080
Lincoln 8,587 73.40% 3,112 26.60% 5,475 46.80% 11,699
Madison 4,113 67.92% 1,943 32.08% 2,170 35.83% 6,056
McCone 932 83.29% 187 16.71% 745 66.58% 1,119
Meagher 834 75.34% 273 24.66% 561 50.68% 1,107
Mineral 1,647 70.81% 679 29.19% 968 41.62% 2,326
Missoula 26,662 37.34% 44,749 62.66% -18,087 -25.33% 71,411
Musselshell 2,341 81.85% 519 18.15% 1,822 63.71% 2,860
Park 5,933 51.52% 5,582 48.48% 351 3.05% 11,515
Petroleum 298 85.39% 51 14.61% 247 70.77% 349
Phillips 1,860 79.18% 489 20.82% 1,371 58.37% 2,349
Pondera 1,963 65.83% 1,019 34.17% 944 31.66% 2,982
Powder River 953 83.74% 185 16.26% 768 67.49% 1,138
Powell 2,278 71.70% 899 28.30% 1,379 43.41% 3,177
Prairie 568 79.33% 148 20.67% 420 58.66% 716
Ravalli 19,114 67.15% 9,350 32.85% 9,764 34.30% 28,464
Richland 4,694 81.66% 1,054 18.34% 3,640 63.33% 5,748
Roosevelt 1,927 48.33% 2,060 51.67% -133 -3.34% 3,987
Rosebud 2,426 64.68% 1,325 35.32% 1,101 29.35% 3,751
Sanders 5,574 73.51% 2,009 26.49% 3,565 47.01% 7,583
Sheridan 1,328 66.10% 681 33.90% 647 32.21% 2,009
Silver Bow 7,175 38.40% 11,511 61.60% -4,336 -23.20% 18,686
Stillwater 4,366 76.48% 1,343 23.52% 3,023 52.95% 5,709
Sweet Grass 1,843 75.26% 606 24.74% 1,237 50.51% 2,449
Teton 2,557 69.41% 1,127 30.59% 1,430 38.82% 3,684
Toole 1,546 73.72% 551 26.28% 995 47.45% 2,097
Treasure 356 77.39% 104 22.61% 252 54.78% 460
Valley 2,966 70.65% 1,232 29.35% 1,734 41.31% 4,198
Wheatland 792 74.51% 271 25.49% 521 49.01% 1,063
Wibaux 492 83.39% 98 16.61% 394 66.78% 590
Yellowstone 50,145 59.90% 33,563 40.10% 16,582 19.81% 83,708
Totals339,16956.39%262,34043.61%76,82912.77%601,509

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Undecided with 6%
  3. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  4. Undecided with 9%
  5. Standard VI response
  6. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  7. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  8. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  9. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  10. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  11. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  12. Gibney (G) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  13. Undecided with 1%
  14. Undecided with 4%
  15. Undecided with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  16. Undecided with 13%
  17. Undecided with 18.4%
  18. Dooling (R) with 2.9%; Winter (D) with 2.7%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%; Evankovich (R) with 1.7%
  19. Dooling (R) with 2.5%; Rains (D) with 2.4%; Winter (D) with 2.1%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  2. Poll conducted for The House Majority PAC, which endorsed Williams prior to this poll's sampling period.
  3. Poll sponsored by Kathleen Williams' campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, which has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

  1. Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
  2. 1 2 Michels, Holly K. (June 6, 2019). "Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020". Independent Record. Retrieved June 7, 2019.
  3. "No Alternative Candidates on Montana Ballot for Any Congressional Race". Ballot Access News. September 13, 2020. Retrieved September 13, 2020.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  4. Pathé, Simone (June 17, 2019). "On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again". Roll Call. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
  5. Alexander, Cassidy (June 25, 2019). "Helena Rancher Joins Race For Montana's House Seat". MTPR. Retrieved June 26, 2019.
  6. 1 2 Dennison, Mike (March 2, 2020). "Dillon veteran a surprise candidate in U.S. House race". KTVH.
  7. Drake, Phil. "Lamm enters 2020 race for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved September 9, 2019.
  8. Drake, Phil (June 15, 2019). "Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 15, 2019.
  9. Dennison, Mike (March 20, 2019). "Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races". KRTV. Retrieved March 21, 2019.
  10. Pogreba, Don (January 9, 2019). "2020 Updates: Daines Tells Tim Fox to Shove Off, He's Supporting Gianforte for Governor. And Denny Rehberg is Eyeing a Comeback!". The Montana Post. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
  11. Trump, Donald J. [@realDonaldTrump] (February 12, 2020). ".@MattForMontana Rosendale is a Strong & Conservative fighter for Montana. Matt stands w/ our Brave Veterans, Loves our Military, and he will continue working to Secure our Border. Matt will NEVER let our #2A go unprotected. Matt has my Total Endorsement!" (Tweet). Retrieved November 23, 2022 via Twitter.
  12. "Mark Levin Audio Rewind - 10/12/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved October 12, 2020.
  13. Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
  14. "Matt Rosendale (MT-AL)". Club for Growth. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
  15. "Crow Tribal Chairman endorses Trump campaign". Ict News. September 15, 2020. Retrieved September 29, 2020.
  16. Montana State University Billings Archived October 25, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
  17. WPA Intelligence (R) Archived March 1, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
  18. 1 2 3 "2020 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  19. "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
  20. Michels, Holly K. (April 2, 2019). "Missoula state Rep. Tom Winter announces bid for U.S. House". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
  21. 1 2 Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  22. Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019). "Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
  23. "Thank you, @AFSCME Montana Council 9!". Twitter. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
  24. "Teamsters Local 190 Endorse Kathleen Williams for U.S. Congress". MT People's Voice. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  25. "MFPE Endorses Kathleen Williams For Congress". MFPE. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 7, 2020.
  26. Dems, New (July 31, 2020). "ENDORSEMENT ALERT: A year ago, we launched our Frontier program to back bold, pragmatic Democrats who can flip even more seats blue. #NewDems have played a key part in expanding the House battlefield & now we're doubling down & supporting 10 more amazing candidates".
  27. Marianne Williamson [@marwilliamson] (May 17, 2020). "If we want a more visionary government we need to support more visionary candidates. And the time to do it is now....https://secure.actblue.com/donate/marianneendorses" (Tweet). Retrieved May 17, 2020 via Twitter.
  28. "Getting Shit Done For the People". Blue America. April 5, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  29. "2020 Endorsed House Candidates". DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare. Archived from the original on May 2, 2020. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
  30. MT Progressive Dems (May 17, 2020). "Montana Progressive Democrats are proud to endorse @WinterForMT for U.S. Representative". Retrieved May 21, 2020 via Twitter.
  31. Our Revolution (April 30, 2020). "We are so proud to endorse #ProgressiveChampion Tom Winter as he will fight for a #GreenNewDeal and better rights for working people. #PoliticalRevolution". Retrieved May 21, 2020 via Facebook.
  32. "Endorsements". Progressive Rising. July 8, 2019. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
  33. "We are endorsing Tom Winter for Congress because he is a Green New Deal champion". April 30, 2020. Archived from the original on December 26, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2020 via Instagram.
  34. Montana State University Billings Archived October 25, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
  35. Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
  36. Michels, Holly (August 7, 2020). "Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
  37. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  38. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  39. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on August 22, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  40. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  41. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  42. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  43. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020. Archived from the original on June 21, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
  44. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. October 2, 2020. Retrieved October 2, 2020.
  45. Montana State University Billings
  46. Siena College/NYT Upshot
  47. Strategies 360
  48. RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Archived October 26, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  49. Montana State University Bozeman Archived October 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  50. Siena College/NYT Upshot
  51. Expedition Strategies (D) Archived September 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  52. WPA Intelligence (R)
  53. Civiqs/Daily Kos
  54. Public Policy Polling
  55. Global Strategy Group (D)
  56. University of Montana
  57. Public Policy Polling
  58. University of Montana
  59. University of Montana
  60. 1 2 Stapleton, Corey (November 3, 2020). "2020 STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 24, 2025. Retrieved October 16, 2025.

Official campaign websites