The 2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 4, 2008, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina. Democratic state senator Kay Hagan defeated Republican one-term incumbent Elizabeth Dole.

The November general election was the first time in North Carolina history, and only the eighth time in U.S. history, that the two major-party candidates for a U.S. Senate seat were both women. In addition, Hagan became the first woman to defeat an incumbent woman in a U.S. Senate election.

As of 2026, this is the last time that a Democrat won a U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, and the only time since 1998, as well as the only time Democrats have won this seat since 1966.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Pete DiLauro

Results

Republican primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Elizabeth Dole (incumbent) 460,665 90.0%
Republican Pete DiLauro 51,406 10.0%
Total votes 512,071 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Duskin Lassiter, trucker
  • Jim Neal, businessman
  • Howard Staley, doctor
  • Marcus Williams, attorney

Declined

Campaign

Hagan, initially an unknown politician, decided to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.[2]

National Democrats attempted to recruit incumbent Governor Mike Easley to make the race. Easley declined to run, as did Congressman Brad Miller, who expressed interest in early 2007.[3][4] Former Governor Jim Hunt also declined to compete against Dole.[5][6]

Neal earned the endorsement of the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg. He also was endorsed by Blue America PAC, eQualityGiving, the Independent Weekly and YES ! Weekly.[7]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kay
Hagan
Jim
Neal
Marcus
Williams
Other
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[8] April 28–29, 2008 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 17% 5% 3%[b] 33%

Results

Democratic primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kay Hagan 801,920 60.1%
Democratic Jim Neal 239,623 18.0%
Democratic Marcus W. Williams 170,970 12.8%
Democratic Duskin Lassiter 62,136 4.6%
Democratic Howard Staley 60,403 4.5%
Total votes 1,335,052 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Chris Cole, perennial candidate

General election

Campaign

Dole's attack ad, "Godless".
Hagan on the campaign trail

Dole was initially a heavy favorite for reelection, especially after several potential top-tier challengers such as Congressman Brad Miller, Governor Mike Easley and former Governor Jim Hunt all declined to compete against Dole.[5][6] Ultimately, Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, won the Democratic primary election and became Dole's general election opponent. Reports late in the campaign suggested that Dole, once considered a safe bet for reelection, suffered from Barack Obama's decision to aggressively contest North Carolina in the presidential election.[9]

Hagan was initially given little chance against Dole, but Hagan was helped by independent 527 groups lobbying/advertising against incumbent Dole.[6] The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee expended more money in North Carolina than in any other state during the 2008 election season.[6] However, Dole benefited from more out-of-state funding overall than Hagan.[10] The efforts appeared to be effective, as Hagan began to take the lead in several polls beginning in September.

In late October, Dole released a controversial television ad attacking Hagan for reportedly taking donations from individuals involved in the Godless Americans PAC, a group which advocates for the rights of people who do not believe in God. The ad also included a female voice saying, "There is no God."[11][12] The Dole campaign said the ad correctly shows who Hagan will associate with in order to raise campaign funds, and on November 1, Bob Dole also defended it, asserting that "it never questions her faith," and that "the issue is why she was there. There's no question about her faith. I think it's [the ad's] fair game."[13]

Hagan, who is a member of the Presbyterian Church and a former Sunday school teacher,[12] condemned the ad as "fabricated and pathetic," and, according to Hagan's campaign website, a cease-and-desist letter was "hand-delivered to Dole's Raleigh office, faxed to her Salisbury office and sent to her home at the Watergate in Washington, DC."[14] Hagan also filed a lawsuit in Wake County Superior Court accusing Dole of defamation and libel.[15][16]

The ad has met exceptionally strong criticism from the public as well as many local and several national media outlets. CNN's Campbell Brown said about the ad: "[A]mid all the attack ads on the airwaves competing to out-ugly one another, we think we've found a winner."[17] The ad has been described as "ridiculously outrageous,"[18] "indecent,"[19] a "gross misrepresentation,"[20] "worse than dishonest"[21] and "beyond the bounds of acceptable political disagreement,"[21] among other harsh criticism.[22] Another ad issued by the Dole campaign in mid-October 2008 was described by The Fayetteville Observer as "[setting] the low mark in negative political campaigning."[23] The media reported, that within 48 hours of the first ad Hagan received over 3,600 contributions, including major donors as well as individual support from a range of atheists, agnostics and followers of other religious beliefs who felt they were being attacked by Dole.[24] Following the second ad Hagan's lead doubled according to some polls.[24]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[25] Tossup October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[26] Lean D (flip) October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[27] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[28] Tossup November 2, 2008

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Elizabeth
Dole (R)
Kay
Hagan (D)
Other/Undecided
[c]
Margin
RealClearPolitics[29] October 28–November 2, 2008 November 2, 2008 45.0% 49.3% 6.7% Hagan +4.3%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Elizabeth
Dole (R)
Kay
Hagan (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[30] October 31 – November 2, 2008 2,100 (LV) ± 2.1% 44% 51% 3%[d] 1%
SurveyUSA[31][A] October 30 – November 2, 2008 682 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 50% 5%[e] 2%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[29] October 29–30, 2008 625 (LV) 46% 45% 9%
Research 2000[32][B] October 28–30, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 50% 3% 2%
Rasmussen Reports[33] October 29, 2008 700 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 52% 2%
Tel Opinion Research (R)[34][C] October 27–29, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 45% 4%[f] 7%
CNN/TIME/Opinion Research Corporation[35] October 23–28, 2008 667 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 53% 3%
Financial Dynamics[8][D] October 23–27, 2008 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 37% 43% 20%
Public Policy Polling (D)[36] October 25–26, 2008 1,038 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 48% 4%[g] 3%
GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media[37][E] October 22–26, 2008 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 47% 7%[h] 1%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[38][F] October 22–24, 2008 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 42% 3%[i] 9%
Marshall Marketing & Communications[39][G] October 20–21, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 44% 5% 8%
Tel Opinion Research (R)[8][C] October 18–20, 2008 600 (RV) ± 4.2% 41% 44% 4%[j] 11%
SurveyUSA[40][A] October 18–20, 2008 627 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 5%[k] 3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[41] October 18–19, 2008 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 49% 4%[l] 5%
Research 2000[42][B] October 14–15, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% 3% 3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[43] October 11–12, 2008 1,196 (LV) ± 2.8% 44% 46% 5%[m] 5%
Rasmussen Reports[29] October 8, 2008 700 (LV) 44% 49% 7%
Tel Opinion Research (R)[8][C] October 6–8, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 45% 2%[n] 11%
WSOC-TV[44] October 6–7, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 44% 4% 9%
SurveyUSA[45][A] October 5–6, 2008 617 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 43% 7%[o] 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[46] September 28–29, 2008 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 38% 46% 6%[p] 10%
Rasmussen Reports[29] September 23, 2008 500 (LV) 45% 48% 7%
Tel Opinion Research (R)[47][48][C] September 17–20, 2008 600 (RV) ± 4.2% 43% 41% 5%[q] 11%
Public Policy Polling (D)[49] September 17–19, 2008 1,060 (LV) ± 3.0% 41% 46% 6%[r] 7%
Rasmussen Reports[29] September 18, 2008 500 (LV) 45% 51% 4%
Research 2000[50][B] September 8–10, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 42% 4% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[51] September 9, 2008 626 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 43% 6%[s] 9%
SurveyUSA[52][A] September 6–8, 2008 671 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 40% 7%[t] 5%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D)[8][H] September 5–7, 2008 605 (LV) 48% 46% 6%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)[53][I] August 20–26, 2008 852 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 50% 6%
InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research[54][55] August 19, 2008 614 (LV) ± 3.8% 40% 40% 7% 14%
Tel Opinion Research (R)[8][C] August 14–17, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 41% 4%[u] 11%
SurveyUSA[56][A] August 9–11, 2008 655 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 41% 7%[v] 5%
Research 2000[57][B] July 28–30, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 42% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[58] July 23–27, 2008 823 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 40% 4%[w] 7%
Tel Opinion Research (R)[8][C] July 14–16, 2008 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 38% 2%[x] 13%
Rasmussen Reports[59] July 15, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 53% 41% 1% 4%
SurveyUSA[60][A] July 12–14, 2008 676 (LV) ± 3.8% 54% 42% 4%
Tarrance Group (R)[8][J] July 7–9, 2008 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 36% 6%[y] 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[61] June 26–29, 2008 1,048 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 37% 12%
Tel Opinion Research (R)[62][63][C] June 11–13, 2008 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 38% 1%[z] 13%
Rasmussen Reports[64] June 10, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 53% 39% 2% 3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[65] May 28–29, 2008 543 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 39% 14%
Anzalone Liszt Research (D)[8][K] May 14–21, 2008 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 44% 8%
SurveyUSA[66][A] May 17–19, 2008 713 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 46% 4%
Tel Opinion Research (R)[67][C] May 14–17, 2008 800 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 43% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[68] May 8–9, 2008 616 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 43% 10%
Rasmussen Reports[69] May 8, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 48% 2% 3%
Research 2000[70][B] April 28–30, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 41% 11%
Rasmussen Reports[71] April 10, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 52% 39% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[72] February 18, 2008 686 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 33% 18%
Rasmussen Reports[73] December 19, 2007 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 55% 35% 4% 6%
Research 2000[74][B] December 16–18, 2007 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 39% 15%
Hypothetical polling

Elizabeth Dole vs. Mike Easley

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Elizabeth
Dole (R)
Mike
Easley (D)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Report[75] October 17, 2007 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 42% 50% 3%[aa] 4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[76] January 22, 2007 501 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 44% 15%

Elizabeth Dole vs. Brad Miller

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Elizabeth
Dole (R)
Brad
Miller (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[77] April 11, 2007 556 (LV) ± 4.1% 44% 33% 22%

Elizabeth Dole vs. Jim Neal

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Elizabeth
Dole (R)
Jim
Neal (D)
Other Undecided
Research 2000[70][B] April 28–30, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%
Rasmussen Reports[71] April 10, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 37% 3% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[72] February 18, 2008 686 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 29% 20%
Research 2000[74][B] December 16–18, 2007 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 37% 16%

Results

2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina[78]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Kay Hagan 2,249,311 52.65% +7.7%
Republican Elizabeth Dole (incumbent) 1,887,510 44.18% −9.4%
Libertarian Chris Cole 133,430 3.17% +2.1%
Write-in 1,719 0.0% 0.0%
Total votes 4,271,970 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

In the 2008 election, Dole lost by a wider-than-expected margin, taking only 44 percent of the vote to Hagan's 53 percent – the widest margin for a Senate race in North Carolina in 30 years, and the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator in the 2008 cycle. It has been speculated that the outcry over the "Godless" ads contributed to Dole's loss.[79] Hagan trounced Dole in the state's five largest counties – Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth and Durham. Hagan also dominated most of the eastern portion of the state, which had been the backbone of Helms' past Senate victories. While Dole dominated the Charlotte suburbs and most of the heavily Republican Foothills region, it was not enough to save her seat.

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Lassiter with 2% and Staley with 1%
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. Chris Cole (L) with 3%
  5. Chris Cole (L) with 5%
  6. Chris Cole (L) with 4%
  7. Chris Cole (L) with 4%
  8. Chris Cole (L) with 2%, Neither/Other candidate with 5%, Refused with 1%
  9. Chris Cole (L) with 3%
  10. Chris Cole (L) with 4%
  11. Chris Cole (L) with 5%
  12. Chris Cole (L) with 4%
  13. Chris Cole (L) with 5%
  14. Chris Cole (L) with 2%
  15. Chris Cole (L) with 7%
  16. Chris Cole (L) with 6%
  17. Chris Cole (L) with 5%
  18. Chris Cole (L) with 6%
  19. Chris Cole (L) with 6%
  20. Chris Cole (L) with 7%
  21. Chris Cole (L) with 4%
  22. Chris Cole (L) with 7%
  23. Chris Cole (L) with 4%
  24. Chris Cole (L) with 2%
  25. Chris Cole (L) with 6%
  26. Chris Cole (L) with 1%
  27. "Some other candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Poll sponsored by WTVD-TV
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Poll sponsored by Daily Kos
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Poll sponsored by the Civitas Institute
  4. Poll commissioned by Allstate and National Journal
  5. Poll commissioned by the Associated Press
  6. Poll commissioned by NBC News
  7. Poll commissioned by WSOC
  8. Poll sponsored by Perdue's gubernatorial campaign
  9. Poll sponsored by Democracy Corp
  10. Poll sponsored by Dole's campaign
  11. Poll sponsored by Hagan's campaign

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